CryptoQuant Identifies $55,000 as Bitcoin’s Ultimate Bear Market Floor

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Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pinpointed the “ultimate” bear market bottom for Bitcoin at approximately $55,000, based on historical price patterns and realized value metrics. The firm cautioned, however, that such bottoms are typically the result of a prolonged basing process rather than a single, sharp capitulation event.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s realized price has historically served as a major support level during previous bear markets, and it currently represents the likely ultimate floor. Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin is still trading more than 25 percent above this threshold.

CryptoQuant noted that in prior cycles, prices have fallen significantly below the realized price—dropping 24 percent after the FTX collapse and 30 percent during the 2018 bear market. Following those troughs, the asset typically spent between four and six months consolidating before a recovery took hold.

The firm also pointed to the scale of daily realized losses as evidence that a structural bottom has not yet been reached. On Feb. 5, following a 14 percent price drop to $62,000, Bitcoin holders recorded $5.4 billion in daily realized losses.

That figure marks the largest single-day realized loss since March 2023, when losses hit $5.8 billion, and exceeds the $4.3 billion in losses seen shortly after the FTX collapse in November 2022. Despite the magnitude of these losses, CryptoQuant emphasized that such an event alone does not signal that a price bottom is imminent.