Bitwise and GraniteShares File for Election-Based Prediction Market ETFs

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Exchange-traded fund issuers Bitwise and GraniteShares have formally submitted applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch funds tied to political event contracts, joining a nascent trend of prediction market-style investment vehicles.

Bitwise filed a prospectus on Tuesday for a new lineup of ETFs branded as PredictionShares, which would list on NYSE Arca. The suite consists of six funds designed to track the outcomes of future US elections across different branches of government.

The structure divides the funds by political party and election cycle. Two funds are structured to pay out if either a Democrat or a Republican wins the US presidential election in November 2028. Two additional funds will generate returns if either party secures control of the Senate in the November 2026 midterms, and the final two are tied to which party wins the House of Representatives during the same cycle.

According to the prospectus, each fund’s objective is explicit in its all-or-nothing structure. “The fund’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that a member of the Democratic Party is the winner of the US Presidential election taking place on November 7, 2028,” the filing states.